Laundering the Quantum Horizon

How Category Drift, Metric Substitution and Circular Validation Sustain the Appearance of a Forecastable Quantum Market

Maria Ksenia Witte, Olga Mamlyga, and Oswaldo Zapata

07 September 2026 | Independent report | DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22643680

Quantum-market forecasts promise clarity—but what exactly are they measuring?

This independent report examines how shifting market definitions, changing metrics and circular forms of validation can create the appearance of a continuously expanding and commercially mature quantum-technology market.

Based on a longitudinal document audit of seven publicly available reports from McKinsey and BCG, published between 2022 and 2026, the authors investigate how provider revenue, end-user value, company valuations, public funding, investment and technological potential can become blended into headline market figures that appear comparable—even when they describe fundamentally different economic objects.

The paper introduces a practical framework for distinguishing technological possibility from genuine commercial demand. It asks:

• What is actually included in the “quantum market”?
• Is the forecast measuring revenue, economic value, investment or technological potential?
• Does a claimed quantum advantage outperform the best classical alternative under realistic conditions?
• Can that advantage be deployed within existing enterprise architectures?
• Who is actually paying—and for what?
• Should post-quantum cryptography be counted as evidence of quantum-computing commercialization?
• How do forecasts, funding narratives and company valuations reinforce one another?

The analysis shows how category drift, metric substitution, temporal resets, evidence substitution and validation laundering can preserve a compelling growth narrative even when the underlying market object changes.

It also explores the wider consequences for capital allocation, public policy, entrepreneurship, workforce development and the long-term credibility of the quantum ecosystem.

Who this report is for

• Investors and venture-capital professionals
• Corporate strategy and innovation teams
• Policymakers and public-funding institutions
• Quantum-technology founders and executives
• Researchers, analysts and technology forecasters
• Decision-makers evaluating quantum-readiness claims

What you will receive

• 14-page independent research report
• Downloadable PDF
• Comparative audit of major quantum-market forecasts
• Two original visual frameworks
• Full references, methodology, limitations and author declarations

Authors: Maria Ksenia Witte, Olga Mamlyga and Oswaldo Zapata
Published: 7 September 2026
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22643680
Language: English
License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

This report does not argue against the potential of quantum technologies. It argues for something more useful: forecasts that keep their object, disclose their boundaries and distinguish credible commercial evidence from persuasive narrative.